why explore possible futures
It's a truism to say that the only certainty about our future is its unpredictability — whether that of newborns or whole societies.
Moreover, the interconnectness of systems and people means our world is increasingly unpredictable within ever shorter time-spans. Second-guessing the future for managers of organisations is no matter for oracles, but a mind-baffling process that always proves wrong.
Planning, however, is necessary for organisations. Thus we need thinking tools to help creators and managers of organations glimpse the dynamics that are driving current forces, and significant changes when they are happening rather than with hindsight, so enable us to steer what's going on now to enable success in the future.
Scenario planning, used by wise governments and corporations alike, is one such tool.
Scenarios, in essence, present us with options. And options are assets. Options that are effective across a range of futures are the most valuable. Hence where there is uncertainty, keep many options open.
There are many ways of 'doing' scenario planning. What you can find here is a brief synopsis of one such process, and here a useful list of 'trigger' questions used by Shell.